A critical factor for deterrence and any protracted conflict, is the ability to resupply our forces to maintain extended physical presence, which includes an ability to sustain naval air operations in remote areas. Successfully doing so must also minimize dependency on long-distance transport of fuel across oceans and be resilient to disruption of our fuel supply chain and operation of our fuel distribution facilities. This is a nontrivial logistics challenge as fuel replenishment logistics operate within a highly dynamic and interconnected system of combatants, auxiliaries, and fuel supply points, each with specific processes and behaviors that define how they interact with each other. Current logistics for replenishment of conventional aviation fuel have hard constraints that limit scale (e.g., limited fuel tanker resources) and subject to risk of potential cascading impacts due to disruption at strategic fuel supply points (e.g., calls for the Red Hill facility to halt operations due to groundwater contamination concerns). Toward these risks, ongoing research into alternative fuel sources for sustainable aviation fuel—following the motto, produce it when and where you need it—have increasing importance to national security. Advancing technology for scalable and mobile production of synthetic aviation fuel from alternative sources, such as seawater, promises to redefine naval replenishment logistics. While engineering challenges to make these technologies fully scalable are making progress, the operational feasibility of the adapted logistics must be fully understood. In this paper, we examine the system through a complexity lens and use agent-based simulation to develop an experiment platform to evaluate operational and environmental impacts over a range of scenarios. We propose this approach as useful for establishing relevant baselines, quantifying operational feasibility, providing guidance for the engineering teams, and ultimately characterizing the value proposition of synthetic aviation fuel for naval logistics. Finally, we discuss possible applications (e.g., wargaming).
Keywords
AGENT-BASED SIMULATION,SCENARIOS
Additional Keywords
Synthetic Fuels, Underway Replenishment Logistics