It has become common practice to employ comprehensive simulations in performing military utility analysis (MUA) to evaluate candidate military systems and architectures. But the accuracy and flexibility of these simulations rely on accurate individual models focused on detailed resolution of local events. This study evaluates the efficient and advanced employment of the Gurney equations within the context of a comprehensive MUA model. The resulting model evaluates a wide range of criteria including multiple mixed detonations, target armor, warhead placement and endgame maneuvering, buildings and terrain, and environmental criteria to estimate shrapnel lethality. The result is an efficient model that can be used either stand-alone or embedded within the larger framework. It has sufficient detail to analyze shrapnel effects in munitions ranging from the individual IEDs (Improvised Explosives Devices) employed in asymmetric warfare up through the employment of alternate artillery rounds in conventional warfare. This model evaluates individual warhead detonations by predicting shrapnel velocity and geometric distribution based upon the type and amount of the core charge, physical properties of the outer casing creating fragments, the incoming vector velocity of the warhead, etc. Burst density and a kinetic energy distribution are derived from these factors. These are compared to the presented vulnerable area of all targets within the region in lethality evaluation. When embedded in the JFORCES simulation environment the results of this model are directly used to measure to impact on localized operations and effectiveness. In addition to introducing the model this paper includes a sample analysis to demonstrate its within a larger framework.
Case Study of the Application of Gurney Equations to Simplified Shrapnel Lethality Estimation in Comprehensive Military Utility Analysis Models
1 Views