Advanced simulation techniques are needed to develop hypersonic missile threat assessments, especially in a typical case of incomplete information.  Current notional defense against hypersonic missiles lies somewhere between exoatmospheric ballistic missile defense and subsonic or supersonic cruise missile defense.  With hypersonic glide vehicles or hypersonic cruise missiles, their trajectories lie within the atmosphere and, of course, travel at hypersonic speed – meaning a Mach number greater than five.  Due to these partial overlapping threat assessment approaches, a novel synthesis of methods is required.  To aid in this threat assessment, a digital twin missile model was built to simulate and parametrically estimate performance subject to uncertainties.

This paper presents how the digital twin model was built for simulation based on first-order, physics-based engineering equations of aerodynamics and propulsion, where threat assessment is measured in the form of range capability and other performance measures, e.g., kinetic impacts.  The model was verified by checking each equation with example calculations and validated with three baseline missiles: the Harpoon turbojet-based antiship missile, the AIM-7 Sparrow solid rocket-based air-to-air missile, and the ramjet-based Advanced Strategic Air-Launched Missile (ASALM).

Finally, the paper presents results of an application of hypersonic missile threat assessment based on publicly available or interpretable information of the Russian 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile.  Furthermore, the paper demonstrates the sensitivity of the unknowns (lift-to-drag ratio, specific impulse, fuel type, fuel weight, etc.) and how they impact confidence in range performance capability.  Therefore, if intelligence assets are limited or available information is conflicting, risk-based decisions are enabled.

Keywords
M&S, MODELING, SIMULATIONS, THREAT MODELING, VERIFICATION, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION (VV&A)

Additional Keywords
Digital Twin