The migrations forced by natural disasters and wars influence the logistics and security plans for Internally Displaced Populations (IDP) camps. In failed states that are the usual environment for Stability Operations, IDP camps are a potential recruiting ground for terrorists (Kahn, 2008; IRIN, 2011). The mix of cultural groups and the perceived legitimacy of the authorities organizing the camps influence the security of the camp, how the IDPs choose the camp where they go for help, and the potential for unrest and terrorism.

This paper demonstrates this approach to training leaders to consider cultural aspects during the planning of humanitarian assistance missions using the flooding of the Indus river in the Sindh valley of Pakistan during August of 2010 as an example. The paper describes an adaptation of the FAPVâ„¢ model for organizing the training (Frank, Hill, & Johnson, 2010) that includes familiarization with the cultural groups in the area, acquiring knowledge about the IDP camps in the area, their capacity and leadership, practice in prioritizing supplies and security forces, and validating resource allocations against models of expected unrest. A synthetic population was constructed to provide a geospatially and demographically accurate population database of households in the flooded areas. A simple agent-based model derived from the synthetic population is used to assess the number of IDPs at 12 IDP camps. Using the work of Gurr (1970) on relative deprivation, Epstein (2002) on unrest models, and Fair, Malhotra, & Shapiro (2010) on support for political violence the model estimates the movement of internally displaced populations to IDP camps based on proximity to the camps, hardship levels expected in the camps, and cultural and political legitimacy of the authorities in the camps, and the likelihood of unrest. This approach provides geo-specific human terrain for training on humanitarian assistance missions.