As exemplified in the recent events in the Middle East, there has been a marked realization that the military operations paradigm contained in the traditional forces modeling and simulation (FMS) models does not adequately capture the contemporary operating environment. To effectively model the interactions and influences with the civilian population, a new approach is required to modeling the behavior of the entities. Once such technique is the use of a system dynamics model to model the population attitudes, predispositions, and actions based upon a combination of stimuli and system properties. Making use of such phenomena and concepts as the tendency to mirror your peer group perceptions, the tendency for extremes to moderate over time, spreading of ideas and perceptions by consistent media channels and modified interpersonal contact, and that an individual belongs to a series of interrelated and sometimes competing groups, we have developed a simplistic model of the influences of non-kinetic actions (including the perception of kinetic actions) on different population groups and the likelihood they will execute particular behaviors. Calibrated by historical events, the agent-based model is constantly updated based upon ongoing data feeds and real-world events. This paper will cover the motivation, background, model elements and construction, and the application of the model to a generic scenario.
A System Dynamics Cultural Model
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