The post Cold War period has been characterized by a dramatic increase in intra-state conflicts, the later significantly outpacing inter-state wars both in their duration and intensity. In an increasingly globalizing and interdependent world intra-nation conflict in the guise of ethnic conflict has serious implications for regional and international stability. There is a burgeoning literature on the relative salience of political, economic, and social conditions in the emergence, escalation, and diffusion of ethnic unrest. Contributing theories analyze the significance and/or interaction of conditions such as deprivation, inter-group antipathy, institutional constraints, demographic change, predatory groups, and external intervention on ethnic awareness, mobilization, unrest, and subsequent irredentist goals. There is also a plethora of research on strategies for managing intra-state conflict. While conspicuous attempts are being made to synthesize explanations and prevention of ethnic unrest and secessionism, few methodological tools are available that can fully integrate the theories and strategies at various levels of a sociopolitical system--individual, group, national, and international. This paper presents a multi-agent simulation as a technique to explore, test, and validate theories of ethnic conflict at multiple levels of analysis. Specifically, it presents the development and implementation of a 'Virtual State (VS)' and the subsequent 'Virtual International System (VIS)' to explore: conditions for the emergence of ethnic unrest, conditions for the diffusion and escalation of ethnic conflict, conditions for the emergence and success of secessionist movement, and conditions for the success of multilateral interventions and the effects of DIME (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic) actions on prevention of secessionist movement.
Simulating Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism for Joint Experimentation
2 Views