Main Subcommittee Category: Simulation

How would you label your submission?: Government

Abstract:

Human factors, such as fatigue and injury, are often represented in wargames at a low level of fidelity. Although this approach enables performance impacts to be considered in planning and adjudication, it limits the generalizability of insights. Modeling and simulation tools for human factors effects are available and improving in resolution (Morris et al., 2022; Veksler & Morris, 2023). However, an infrastructure does not exist for integrating these tools into wargames or with digital tools commonly used for wargames. To address this gap, we created a pipeline to integrate two models of human performance with an existing digital gameboard tool, developed in support of wargames, Combat Operations Mission and Basing Analysis Tool (COMBAT). One model represents pilot alertness as a function of circadian rhythms, sleep history, and hours awake. Over a 24-hour period, the model can identify periods of low risk (green), moderate risk (yellow) and high risk (red). The second model represents effects of a ground-based laser dazzle weapon on visibility during takeoff and landing. When integrated, the resulting tool, 'COMBAT-AFRL/711', shows planned sorties that are affected by risk associated with either of these factors are flagged. Players and adjudicators may choose to remove flagged sorties based on risk posture or scenario rules. Users may specify sortie schedules and base location of laser dazzle risks. Once the scenario is run, analytics are generated showing users the mission impacts of the human factor risks in the scenario, including cancelled sorties and incomplete mission objectives. We applied the tool to data from an unclassified wargame scenario. The analysis of the unclassified scenario revealed significant immediate and cascading effects of cancelled sorties on mission objectives. This is important because it highlights ways in which fatigue risks may have unforeseen, downstream operational consequences. The tool enables integration of high-fidelity human factors effects into large mission-level wargames.

Keywords: HUMAN FACTORS

Additional Keywords not in the list above: wargaming, fatigue, directed energy

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Dr. Christopher Stevens