At the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) we are often interested in assessing and comparing the relative combat effectiveness of different combat systems, for example to investigate which one of two, or more, alternative combat systems that solves a selection of tasks or missions best. In this context, a combat system can for example be a weapon system, a group of fighting entities, a force structure element, or a force structure.

There is no precise and unambiguous definition of combat effectiveness. However, combat effectiveness can in general be said to be a measure of a combat system’s ability to solve a given task or mission, or a measure of how well a combat system solves a given task or mission. Combat effectiveness is affected by many different factors, and measuring and analyzing combat effectiveness is a complex and challenging task. Data from real-world warfare are often scarce, and for obvious reasons it is of course not possible to experiment with warfare in the real world. Modeling and simulation (M&S) is therefore essential for experimenting with, and assessing and comparing the performance and combat effectiveness of, different weapon systems and force structure elements. Combat models, however, are simplifications and will never represent all aspects of reality. Simulation of modern combat with sufficient realism is very challenging, especially when it comes to human factors.

In this paper, we discuss what combat effectiveness means from a conceptual, system-theoretic perspective, look at some definitions of combat effectiveness, and discuss the factors that can affect combat effectiveness. Moreover, we briefly describe and discuss some of the approaches for quantifying and measuring combat effectiveness that have been suggested in the literature. Finally, we present our general approach for using simulations and simulation-supported wargames to assess and compare the relative combat effectiveness of different combat systems.

Marius Halsør

Affiliation

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Wargaming Evolved: Methodology and Best Practices for Simulation-Supported Wargaming

Estimating Relative Combat Effectiveness Using Simulations