Abstract:

The resilience of NATO's Modeling and Simulation (M&S) capability is critical for effective wargaming, operations planning, analysis, and training across complex environments. As NATO faces increasingly sophisticated adversaries and evolving technological landscapes, maintaining M&S capabilities and capacity is essential. This paper explores the application of the DOTMLPFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel, Facilities, and Interoperability) framework to evaluate and enhance the resiliency of NATO's M&S capability. Using a multi-disciplinary research approach that combines systems engineering, User Stories and Risk Assessment , this study identifies key positive and negative factors that influence M&S resilience in the context of modern defense needs.

Resilience refers to the ability of a system to prepare for, absorb, recover from, and adapt to strategic shocks that can be initialized inside or outside of the system. More broadly, resiliency ensures continued stability of the system. Basic presumption of this research is that M&S capability can be seen as loosely coupled system of systems with their baseline M&S capacities that are consumed by M&S Users. Therefore, all protective/corrective actions should increase the M&S capacity withing these systems and assured that system of systems stays stable even if exercised by shocks.

The primary research output is a DOTMLPFI recommendation on actions to enhance M&S resilience capacities beyond baseline requirements by managing the impacts of potential threats and shocks. The results underscore the need for a comprehensive approach to M&S resilience that not only addresses a need to adapt M&S discipline to emerging technologies but also emphasizes organizational agility, training and experimentation continuity, strong leadership and cross-national collaboration. This research contributes to the broader understanding of M&S resilience, offering practical recommendations for NATO and allied forces to improve the reliability and effectiveness of M&S tools in the face of emerging global threats.

Keywords: ACQUISITION MODELS;ADAPTABILITY;BEST PRACTICES;RISK ASSESSMENT;VULNERABILITY MODELS

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Bugra Ayyildiz